Watching and Waiting

Because I work with data analysis in my professional life, I recently purchased a new book on Risk Assessment using Bayesian Networks. The authors of this book are Prof Norman Fenton and Prof Martin Neil, two experts in risk management and risk modelling.

The reason I bring this to your attention, is that these two experts have also recently published a comparison of age adjusted all-cause mortality rates in England between vaccinated and unvaccinated people. Using data from the UK Office for National Statistics, they concluded:

It turns out that, even using this age adjusted mortality rate, the death rate is currently higher among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated.

The trends for the different vaccination categories are also concerning. In contrast to the unvaccinated, the mortality rates for the vaccinated have initially increased from very low initial values, but then have increased, whilst that for the unvaccinated has decreased.

..we can conclude that the ONS’s own data does not support the claims made for vaccine effectiveness/safety. 

Prof Norman Fenton and Prof Martin Neil (in Probability and Risk)

If you are into statistics, you can find an interesting discussion of the data presented in Fenton and Neil’s study in this edition of El Gato Malo’s newsletter (you may want to subscribe to this newsletter if you are into Covid-19 related data).

I also noted the following conclusion in the latest edition of data analyst Matt Shapiro’s newsletter. Shapiro, an expert data analysist with a seemingly neutral take on Covid-19 policies and on the mRNA injections, looked at each US state’s Covid-19 numbers for September 2021. He ended his newsletter with the following:

This month in COVID data is a mixed bag. Yes, it’s good that the overall cases and deaths are trending downward, but it’s incredibly concerning to see so many states (red and blue both, not that this should matter) where their current post-vaccine COVID surges are matching or exceeding their pre-vaccine COVID surges. That seems very counter intuitive and I’m not sure what to make of it. 

Matt Shapiro (Marginally Compelling newsletter)

Yes, indeed the fact that highly vaccinated populations see Covid-19 surges does seem counter intuitive – IF you assume the vaccines are effective.

Looking at the Covid-19 cases per million people for three of the most highly vaccinated countries in the world (Israel, UK and Singapore) does not make a great advertisement for the patented experimental mRNA injections, as shown below.

As you can see from the figure, data for all three countries show that the Covid-19 cases per million are higher in the post-vaccination surge. Lowest of all for all three countries is the initial surge before vaccinations started. To be clear – I do not want to suggest the vaccines are responsible for these increases. The higher peaks we see now are most likely due to the more contagious Delta-variant.

My point is that the vaccines are clearly not effective as claimed – and achieving a certain target vaccination percentage as the basis for a policy to end lockdowns and prison island situations such as New Zealand seems quite flawed.

But perhaps the support for mandatory vaccinations rest on the assumption that deaths and hospitalizations are lower in vaccinated groups? Well, putting aside (a) contrary evidence such as that of Fenton and Neil noted above; and (b) the obvious ethical concerns (as brilliantly summarized here), I firmly believe it is too early to draw such conclusions with any confidence. There are simply too many confounding factors (smaller size of highly vulnerable, seasonality, lockdowns, new variants that are less deadly, etc.). Time will reveal the truth for those who value it, and I am watching and waiting.

It would of course have been nice if we had two large groups of comparable demographics that represent vaccinated and unvaccinated people. But wait, we DO have such groups – from the Pfizer and Moderna trials!

Sadly, Pfizer and Moderna both decided to destroy the placebo/control group by vaccinating them. As El Gato Malo commented on this:

[it is] both unfortunate and somewhat sinister that the two big vaccine RCTs [randomized control trials] both eliminated their control groups 3 months in before all the vaccine fade issues began. that data would be priceless right now, albeit perhaps not to shareholders of Pfizer and Moderna.

El Gato Malo, in All cause deaths and vaccination status.

Finally – a while ago, as vaccination fever took hold of New Zealand, someone told me they spoke to a paramedic working somewhere in New Zealand. This person alleged that they were seeing a significant increase in the number of heart attacks in the area where they worked. I said “interesting” but did not pay much attention to it, until I came across this news article from The Times on 30 September 2021. The article reported a mystery rise in heart attacks from blocked arteries:

Health experts have been left baffled by a big rise in a common and potentially fatal type of heart attack in the west of Scotland.

During the summer there was a 25 per cent rise in the number of people rushed to the Golden Jubilee National Hospital in Clydebank with partially blocked arteries cutting blood supply to the heart.

The Times (article 30 Sept 2021)

It would be interesting if any of these health experts have the courage to suggest an investigation between a possible link between the increase in the percentage of people who are vaccinated and the percentage of people presenting with heart attacks, especially given that myocarditis and blood clots are known potential side effects of the patented experimental mRNA injections. I reported studies around this risk of heart issues after vaccination in an earlier post.


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Thanks for visiting my blog. See you on the barricades!