Pandemic Perspective

The Pandemics Data & Analytics (PANDA) group recently published a good summary showing how government agencies and the public have lost sight of the big picture. The key to this is the fact that the percentage of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 that then go on to die is less than 0.2% (data cited from the WHO).

For people younger than 50, the survival rate is greater than 99.92%. Add to this the fact that, according to the CDC, only 6% of those who are deemed to have died with Covid have Covid-19 as the only cause mentioned – the rest (that is 94%) all have one or more comorbidities.

In this post I try to give some graphical perspective on the risks and benefits of the Pfizer patented experimental mRNA treatments. The data used here are taken from the paper by Classen in Trends in Internal Medicine Journal. Note that the numbers used here are not those of the original trial, but from a post-hoc analysis of SEVERE Covid infections (full study paper here).

I do not have access to the original post hoc paper linked above, so I am using the data as reported in Table 1 of Classen’s paper. I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the data, and if Classen did not report it correctly, please let me know and I will re-do the analysis.

According to the paper by Classen, the post-hoc analysis of severe Covid infections was reported as follows:

ParameterPfizer-InjectionControl Group
Severe Covid Cases19
Total Severe Events (including life-threatening)262172

I am not sure how a placebo group can have 172 adverse reactions, but that is what the data says. Now, just look at those numbers without focusing on Covid cases – just for once assume that severe Covid cases weigh the same as severe adverse reactions. Look at the size of the risk – this is a KNOWN risk, whereas long term potential adverse reactions from the injections simply cannot be known with certainty.

Let’s look at the risk graphically. The image below graphically represents the Pfizer-treatment outcome. It was generated by a program that randomly draws small circles on a fixed white background area. The light blue dots represent the number of participants who did not get severe Covid or severe adverse reactions. The orange dots represent severe adverse reactions.

The red dot (visible lower right) represents the single severe Covid case in the group that received the Pfizer mRNA injection (I made the red and orange dots slightly larger so they are more easily seen).

Note that these images are different from the ones in my original post because I made the orange colour darker to be more visible. Because the image places dots in random locations, the placement of the dots are now different.

The image below graphically represents the outcome of the control group (placebo group). As you can see, there are more red dots but fewer orange dots in the placebo group’s image. Let us assume a certain percentage of orange dots present myocarditis or blood clots – both life threatening with potential life-long consequences for young persons in particular. Which scenario would you choose? Hard to say which one you would choose right?

If you compare these two images, you understand the meaning of relative vs absolute efficacy and risk. If you are fit and healthy, and under the age of 60, the chances are very slim that you will get severely ill of Covid. You are almost certain to be one of the blue dots.

Thus, the risk of getting severely ill from Covid is extremely small. That is why the absolute effectiveness of the Pfizer mRNA treatment is only 0.7%. Yes, that is not an error. When they say it is 95% effective, they are only comparing the red dots of the two groups. The 0.7% absolute effectiveness is the overall reduction in the chance you end up a red dot and not a blue dot.

But why even talk about the red dots if the increase in orange dots in the Pfizer treatment group compared to the placebo group completely overwhelms the argument? Remember, these are not sore arms. These are serious adverse events.

Let’s put these two viewpoints side by side and add an important context, which is that placebos generally do not end up killing at least 10,000 people within four days of their getting it. In other words, let us add the context of side-effects and unknown long term risks which could include the most deadly diseases on earth: heart failure and cancer.

Of course, if we throw into the placebo option early treatment with some of the proven protocols, it quickly becomes a more straightforward risk assessment. But early treatment protocols are generally banned in western democracies. Only in some forward looking countries such as India has this ancient practice of treating people early with inexpensive, widely available medicine been tried.

Let me end with some recent statements by public health officials in Australia. It is hard to follow the logic in this first statement:

Overseas, even in communities with high rates of vaccination they have thousands and thousands of cases every single day. And that’s why, for a long time, we’ve been urging our citizens to come forward and get vaccinated.

Gladys Berejiklian (video evidence is here. Emphasis is mine)

And this one is also from the state of New South Wales. I will give them credit for their honesty – it really does give me some hope:

Seven people who have lost their lives to Covid-19…one person within their 40s, one person in their 50s, two people in their 70s, two people in their 80s, and one person who was in their 90s. All of those individuals had underlying health conditions. One person was not vaccinated, three people had received one dose of the Covid vaccine, and three people had received two doses of the Covid vaccine.

New South Wales Health Official (video evidence is here. Emphasis is mine)

Please share my blog as widely as you feel comfortable to do. I do not want to sound alarmist, as is the habit of the mainstream media, but I really do believe we are in a battle in which technocrats and political ideologues are attempting to force a centralized, dehumanized and atheist-scientific-materialist way of life on us.

Also have a look at my Resources Page for useful videos to make you understand what is going on, and to find support groups to make you feel less alone and crazy.

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Thanks for visiting my blog. See you on the barricades!