What’s Your Odds

I recently read a comment on Unherd, stating something like ‘if you are unvaccinated your chances of dying of Covid-19 are small. If you are vaccinated, your chances are tiny’. But there is more to it than just that single binary question, is there not? Let’s take a look…

Risk of Dying or Hospitalization

Using the Oxford Covid Risk calculator, I estimate that, at my age, after adjusting for my weight and (lack of) comorbidities, my risk of dying from the first SARS CoV2 variant is approximately one in 11,200. This risk is somewhere between the lifetime risk of dying from sunstroke and dying from electrocution.

My risk of being hospitalized because of Covid0-19 is 1 in 1,500. My lifetime risk of dying from drowing is greater than this. My lifetime risk of dying from fire or smoke is roughly the same. The image below shows a screenshot of my calculated risk using the Oxford Covid Risk calculator:

A very important caveat to the above is that it assumes that I already have Covid. It also does not take into account whether my Vitamin D and Zinc levels are good. More importantly, it assumes I am living in a country where the government has outlawed cheap, harmless and promising early treatments such as Ivermectin. Were this not the case, my risk of dying from Covid could decrease by somewhere between 50% and 80%. But I will not blame them for that, for they know not what they are doing (or do they?).

Risk of Serious Side Effect from Experimental mRNA Treatment

This we do not know with certainty. The rapid rollout of the experimental novel mRNA treatment to millions of people mean that those responsible for the panic reaction have to suppress any signal that the experimental treatment causes damage to overall long term health. If you doubt that statement – just imagine for a moment a world in which people who are attracted to positions of power have to admit they made a colossal mistake that contributed to the early deaths of thousands of people. There is no conceivable way they would ever do that – the evidence will never be allowed into mainstream consciousness. They would rather start a new war to divert attention elsewhere.

But we do know that the safety profile of the experimental Covid-19 injections appears to be worse than that of any previously existing actual vaccine. For those who are at all open to the possibility that organizations such as the FDA and the CDC are no longer functional, the following signals are not to be simply dismissed:

Perhaps of greatest concern is the observation in the UK, and now in Sweden, that older vaccinated individuals have a higher incidence of Covid infection than those who are unvaccinated. At the same time others are describing a state of immune deficiency following vaccination with genetic vaccines. At this stage it is unclear as to whether this “deficiency” of the immune response is limited to the antibody response to Covid virus. This should not be a surprise to anyone who has done “Immunology 101”, as enhancing antibody (ie antibody that promotes infection, rather than limits it) is well recognised in RNA virus infections, and “antigen excess causing a downregulation of immunity” is a basic tenet of immunology. 

Emeritus Professor Robert Clancy AM (full article can be found here)

Putting my Risk Assessment Together

So my risk calculation is based on the following aspects: (a) the patented experimental injections provide protection to death and serious illness for about four months; (b) the definition of vaccinated will soon be changed to include regular booster shots, the effect of which on the overall immune system is unknown; (c) there is a very small but real risk of death and injury from taking the vaccines; (d) evidence quoted above, as well as data from the UK now suggests that, for people older than 50, “vaccinated” persons are more likely to contract Covid than “unvaccinated” people.

All of the above leads me to the following visualization of my risk with and without the experimental mRNA treatment:

In this assessment, “severe adverse reaction” refers to something causing short to long term neurological damage, blood clots or heart issues”. I have not tried to quantify any of these risks, but relatively speaking, as explained above, “Small Risk” is somewhere between 1 in 1,000 and 1 in 11,000. I am going to live with that and get on with my life.

For those who object to the above assessment on the grounds that I should be taking the experimental treatment for the sake of “protecting others”, I would refer them to this article by the Brownstone Institute. It summarizes several studies showing clearly that – in terms of spreading the disease – both the “vaccinated” and “unvaccinated” are equally at fault for being alive:

Riemersma et al. found “no difference in viral loads when comparing unvaccinated individuals to those who have vaccine “breakthrough” infections. Furthermore, individuals with vaccine breakthrough infections frequently test positive with viral loads consistent with the ability to shed infectious viruses.”

Brownstone Institute Article [19 Studies on Vaccine Efficacy that Raise Doubts on Vaccine Mandates]

Please share my blog as widely as you feel comfortable to do. I do not want to sound alarmist, as is the habit of the mainstream media, but I really do believe we are in a battle in which technocrats and political ideologues are attempting to force a centralized, dehumanized and atheist-scientific-materialist way of life on us.

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